Donald Trump has the backing of a substantial minority of Latinos. Trump support between online and live phone polls might continue into the general election polling. And Bernie Sanders had a pretty good night in Oregon, but still doesn’t have much chance of winning the nomination. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, May 18, 2016.
DO 28 PERCENT OF LATINOS REALLY SUPPORT TRUMP? - Julio Ricardo Varela: “Despite previous polls reporting that Donald Trump’s popularity with Latino voters was dramatically decreasing, a new NBC News/Survey Monkey online survey released Tuesday morning has the presumptive Republican presidential nominee earning 28 percent of Latino support in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario with Hillary Clinton, who earned 65 percent of Latino support….In other polls conducted earlier this year, Trump’s Latino support was as low as 12 percent (FIU/Adsmovil) or hovering around the 15 percent mark (Washington Post/Univision). In March, a Gallup poll reported that Trump’s unfavorability rating with Latinos was at 77 percent: the highest of any presidential candidate in the race.” [Latino USA]
A few things have changed since earlier polls - HuffPollster confirmed that the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll did not offer the questionnaire in Spanish -- a key difference from the earlier FIU/Adsmovil and Washington Post/Univision polls. The context of the race has shifted since those earlier polls as well. In the poll where Trump only got 12 percent support, “other” got 26 percent of the vote. The poll was conducted in mid-April, when someone else winning the Republican nomination was still possible, and the idea of an independent candidate was still alive. Now, Trump is the presumptive nominee. As Varela notes, “The 28% Trump number with Latinos is around the same number Mitt Romney got with Latino voters in 2012, when Romney lost to President Barack Obama, who won 71% of the Latino vote.” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 31 percent of the Latino vote in 2008. But not all surveys are showing a similar increase: a YouGov poll from last week has Latino support of Trump at a more modest 18 percent.
ONLINE POLLS OVERESTIMATED TRUMP’S STRENGTH IN THE PRIMARIES - Nate Cohn: “With the primary season effectively over, I think we can say, with some qualifications, that the live-interview surveys were probably more accurate than the online surveys. Why? The actual results just weren’t as good for Mr. Trump as the balance of online surveys predicted they would be. Mr. Trump has now won 41 percent of the popular vote — including the string of recent contests where he clearly broke through and outperformed his prior vote tallies. On Super Tuesday, he won just 34 percent of the vote — and he won about 39 percent between then and the New York primary. But the online surveys showed Mr. Trump at 38 percent as early as the new year, broke 40 percent around Super Tuesday, and were in the mid-40s by March 15. His actual vote tallies consistently trailed the online surveys. They look a lot more like what the live-interview surveys showed at the time.” [NYT]
But it's unclear if there's a mode effect in general election polls - Steven Shepard: “It’s too early to know whether the same phenomenon is occurring in the general election. Trump has tightened his deficit with Clinton in a number of online polls conducted since he became the apparent GOP nominee, and the Quinnipiac state polls show close races in key Electoral College battlegrounds. But there has not yet been a national poll conducted by live interviewers over that time. It might also be whom the poll comprises, rather than just how they are interviewed. Opt-in online polls tend to overestimate low-income Americans who work part-time or are unemployed, according to a study earlier this month by the Pew Research Center. ‘It might not be that it’s a social-desirability effect,’ said [Republican pollster Kristen] Soltis Anderson, referring to the theory that voters might not want to admit their support for Trump. ‘It might be the bias in who takes online surveys, period. But we don’t really know the answer to that.’” [Politico]
SANDERS WINS OREGON BY 10 POINTS - Samantha Lachman: "Bernie Sanders won Oregon’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, demonstrating once again that his campaign will continue to win states even as his path to the nomination narrows…. Oregon’s Democratic primary is closed to unaffiliated voters…. Sanders has struggled in states with closed primaries. But Sanders ultimately prevailed in the state, which sends 61 pledged delegates to the Democratic convention this summer. With 75 percent of precincts reporting, Sanders led Clinton, 54.5 percent to 45.5 percent. It’s the first time Sanders has won a primary closed to unaffiliated voters….Clinton will maintain a significant lead in delegates, even with the Oregon loss. Heading into the state’s primary, she had 1,716 pledged delegates, to Sanders’ 1,433." [HuffPost]
Why that doesn't do much to help his chances - Sanders is still far behind in the pledged delegate race, and the victory in Oregon didn’t change that. In Tuesday’s other race, Sanders and Clinton split the Kentucky primary vote nearly evenly. According to Nate Silver, Sanders needs to win all remaining contests by 35 percent to get to a pledged delegate majority.
ALMOST HALF OF VOTERS DON’T CARE ABOUT FACEBOOK CURATING NEWS - Damon Beres: “The media have been in a froth lately over news that Facebook’s ‘Trending Topics’ are subject to human bias, supposedly to the detriment of conservative viewpoints. But American voters don’t really care, according to a survey from news analytics firm Morning Consult. Forty-seven percent of survey respondents said they were ‘very comfortable’ or ‘somewhat comfortable’ with social media networks determining the newsthat people see on their sites. Seventeen percent were ‘not very comfortable,’ another 17 percent were ‘not comfortable’ and 20 percent had no opinion.” [HuffPost]
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WEDNESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 2 percentage points in a New Hampshire poll. [WBUR]
-Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say they trust Trump over Paul Ryan to lead the party. [NBC]
-David Wasserman explains why Pennsylvania could be crucial in the general election. 
-Rob Suls highlights fundamental differences between Bernie Sanders and Clinton supporters on foreign policy. [Pew]
-Sixty-three percent of "pro-life" Americans can't say whether they agree or disagree with Trump on abortion issues. [Gallup]
-Gov. Chris Christie's (R) approval rating in New Jersey hits a new low. [Quinnipiac]
-Americans are really confused about Puerto Rico's status. [YouGov]