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Tony Abbott
Tony Abbott is reportedly considering holding a snap double dissolution election after the Canning byelection, regardless of the Coalition’s poor poll numbers. Photograph: Richard Wainwright/AAP
Tony Abbott is reportedly considering holding a snap double dissolution election after the Canning byelection, regardless of the Coalition’s poor poll numbers. Photograph: Richard Wainwright/AAP

Tony Abbott expected to face Liberal leadership challenge within months

This article is more than 8 years old

Coalition in damaging cycle of leadership manoeuvring and speculation as expectations grow the prime minister will face another challenge

The Abbott government is descending into a damaging cycle of leadership manoeuvring and speculation as expectations grow the prime minister will face another challenge within months.

On Sunday it emerged that Liberal whip and rusted-on Abbott supporter Andrew Nikolic had texted Malcolm Turnbull last week demanding he issue a public statement disavowing any intention of a challenge. Turnbull replied that such a statement would only stoke the leadership speculation and that saying nothing was his best option – a response accepted as self-evident by many colleagues.

Channel Nine also reported that Abbott had told News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch he was considering an early double dissolution election sometime after the Canning byelection next weekend – a conversation that prompted a series of tweets from Murdoch on September 3 suggesting that the country was becoming “almost ungovernable” and that the “govt must push on with reforms for sake of all sides or hold snap poll”.

Senior Liberals were astounded at the idea of going to an election when the government lags Labor 54% to 46% in published polls, when the Senate has been passing government budget measures and when the government has not proceeded with threatened “reforms” to Senate voting procedures, without which a double dissolution would almost certainly result in a greater variety of minor party crossbenchers even if the government was to win it.

Ministers told Guardian Australia they believed a challenge was inevitable and that the current situation was untenable. One minister suggested the prime minister could yield to a “tap on the shoulder” by a delegation from his frontbench, but most others said this was almost inconceivable.

Next weekend’s Canning byelection had been set as the next “test” of Abbott’s hold on the top job, but the benchmark by which he will be judged keeps shifting and Liberal MPs are expecting the leadership issue to come to a head regardless of the result.

The most recent Ipsos poll, as well as a Galaxy poll taken over the weekend, shows the Liberals retaining the seat by 52% to 48% in two-party preferred terms, a 10% swing compared with the vote for Don Randall, the long-serving incumbent whose death precipitated the byelection. But the anticipated “truce” ahead of the poll has been shattered by the well placed and highly damaging leadership stories, which could also influence the result.

Most Coalition MPs believe Turnbull would become leader if there was a challenge, with social services minister Scott Morrison becoming treasurer. But no one is confident about numbers, or even about who the contenders would be, and each leak is greeted with rampant speculation about either the prime minister’s office, or one of the other contenders, seeking to “smoke Turnbull out”.

Asked on Sunday whether he would step down as leader if the Coalition lost Canning, Abbott said “well we’re not going to lose the Canning byelection”.

“We’ve got an outstanding candidate, we have run a strong campaign and I think that the people of Canning are going to ask themselves who is going to look after them.”

Abbott survived a motion to spill the leadership in February by 61 votes to 39. That crisis was driven by backbench concern at the performance of the government. Backbenchers say any fresh move on Abbott’s leadership must be driven by the ministry.

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