Four new state polls out Sunday morning from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist show that although Donald Trump leads in typically red Arizona and Georgia, they are up for grabs. And in typically close Nevada and New Hampshire,Hillary Clinton leads, but only by a razor-thin margin.
All four state polls show the race within the margin of error.
In Arizona, Trump leads by 1 point among likely voters, 42 percent to 41 percent. Among registered voters, Clinton has the 1-point advantage, 41-40. With Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein in the race, Trump leads by 2 points.
The poll confirms Arizona’s status as a battleground state in this election. The state has been solidly red since 1952, with the exception of Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election. HuffPost Pollster’s estimate based on publicly available polls gives Trump only a 1.6-point lead over Clinton.
Georgia is similarly close in the new poll, with the race tied among registered voters at 44 percent and a 3-point Trump lead among likely voters, 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent. That becomes a 2-point Trump lead when Johnson is included (Stein isn’t on the ballot in the state).
The Deep South state has also been competitive this cycle, but has a more recent history of shifting from blue to red despite its reputation as a Republican stronghold. Bill Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and only narrowly lost the state in 1996. The HuffPost Pollster model estimates that Trump leads by 1.5 points.
Both Arizona and Georgia have large populations of voters that Trump has struggled with ― college-educated whites. According to an analysis conducted by The Huffington Post, in both states about a third of white adults over age 25 have college degrees. This segment of the population has tended to lean Republican in past elections, but they seem less willing to vote for Trump, according to 2016 polls.
Minority populations in each state ― Arizona’s Latino population and Georgia’s black population, both groups with whomTrump’s numbers are abysmal ― don’t help either. In 2012, Latinos made up 18 percent of the Arizona electorate, according to exit polls. There weren’t exit polls conducted in Georgia in 2012, but based on voter registration numbers, the black vote could have been as high as 30 percent.
But some swing states aren’t new: New Hampshire and Nevada have been battleground states for the last few presidential election cycles. Clinton leads by a single percentage point among likely voters in both states. Among registered voters, her lead expands to 5 points in Nevada, but the race becomes tied in New Hampshire. Adding Johnson and Stein flips Nevada to a 1-point Trump advantage, but in New Hampshire, Clinton remains ahead.
The HuffPost Pollster model gives Clinton the advantage in Nevada, but just barely.
Clinton’s average lead is much larger in New Hampshire, where recent polls have shown her with a much bigger advantage. The HuffPost Pollster model shows her ahead of Trump by just over 5 points.
Methods: The four NBC/WSJ/Marist state polls were conducted Sept. 6-8, 2016, by landline and cell phone. In Arizona, the poll includes 946 registered voters (with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points) and 649 likely voters (with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points). In Georgia, the poll includes 913 registered voters (+/- 3.2 percentage points) and 625 likely voters (+/- 3.9 percentage points). The Nevada poll includes 915 registered voters (+/- 3.2 percentage points) and 627 likely voters (+/- 3.9 percentage points). The New Hampshire poll includes 987 registered voters (+/- 3.1 percentage points) and 737 likely voters (+/- 3.6 percentage points).
For more information on how HuffPost Pollster calculates trends, click here.