This was published 6 years ago
Dumped One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts faces uphill battle for state seat
By Adam Gartrell and Political Correspondent
Dumped One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts has already hit the campaign trail in Queensland as he seeks to slide straight into a state seat - and potentially even the party's state leadership - at next month's election.
Mr Roberts is running for the seat of Ipswich at the November 25 poll, meaning he could be back in a parliamentary job a mere four weeks after the High Court booted him from the Senate for failing to renounce his British citizenship.
Malcolm Roberts with Pauline Hanson at Parliament House in Canberra on Friday after the High Court booted him from the Senate.Credit: Andrew Meares
One Nation is polling about 16 per cent across the state - and even higher in regional areas - making the right-wing party a threat to both Labor and the Liberal National Party in what is sure to be a hard-fought election.
The finely-balanced Queensland Parliament, the return of full preferential voting (as opposed to an optional preferential system) and new electoral boundaries for many seats mean the result is highly unpredictable - but it could hand One Nation a balance of power role.
Malcolm Roberts with Pauline Hanson after the High Court ruled him ineligible to have been elected to the Senate.Credit: Andrew Meares
So, does Mr Roberts - who attracted just 77 first preference votes at last year's federal election - have a chance in Ipswich?
ABC election analyst Antony Green believes he faces an uphill battle.
"It would be highly surprising if One Nation won there on first preferences, which would mean they would have to come from behind on LNP preferences," he said.
Ipswich is held by Labor's Jennifer Howard on a strong margin of 16 per cent. She is a popular member, although the party's brand has been damaged by a corruption scandal involving the Labor-aligned former mayor Paul Pisasale.
The LNP is yet to select a candidate for the seat. But running is Troy Aggett, the former One Nation candidate for the seat - who quit after falling out with the party and is now an independent - which will further complicate preferences.
"The seat next door, Ipswich West, is much more likely to fall to One Nation. Lockyer next door is another seat One Nation has a very good chance of winning," Green said.
"But Ipswich is a much more urban seat and One Nation's problem there is they would really have to bring down the Labor vote."
In an interesting quirk of history, the last One Nation politician to get booted from the Senate over dual citizenship, Heather Hill, also stood in Ipswich. She ran in 1998 but lost to Labor shortly before her ill-fated Senate stint.
Mr Roberts built his public profile in large part through his climate change conspiracy theories but is already focusing on more retail, hip-pocket issues in his state campaign.
"Without a Queensland One Nation government, the people of Ipswich and Queensland will continue to suffer from crippling power prices and increasing government red tape," he said at the weekend.
"This town has been neglected by the Labor Party. The Labor Party takes Ipswich for granted. We are going to stop that."
If he was to prevail, One Nation figures are already talking about the potential of making him state leader - particularly with current leader Steve Dickson, an LNP turncoat, under pressure in his seat of Buderim.
Former Queensland Labor premier Peter Beattie said while Ipswich should be quite safe for Labor, Mr Roberts could shake things up and perform quite well, given his high public profile.
Ipswich was the birthplace of One Nation, the city where Pauline Hanson originally built her brand and won a federal seat in 1996.
Mr Roberts, who lives in Brisbane rather than Ipswich, will be replaced in the Senate by Queensland publican Fraser Anning, a One Nation veteran.