HUFFPOLLSTER: New York Is Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Territory

The biggest question is how many delegates Trump can win.

14/04/2016 11:00 PM AEST | Updated 14/04/2016 11:00 PM AEST
Jim Bourg/Jim Young Reuters

TRUMP LIKELY TO WIN MOST OF NEW YORK'S DELEGATES - Nate Cohn: "Unless every poll is wildly wrong, Donald Trump is going to win in New York on Tuesday, and he’s going to win big.... A few votes here or there could make the difference between a solid or shaky road to the Republican nomination….But New York awards its delegates in a fairly unusual way: proportionally but with a 50 percent winner-take-all trigger for each district and for the pool of statewide delegates. So Mr. Trump would need 50 percent of the vote statewide and in each congressional district to win all of the delegates. To win 50 percent of the vote statewide, he needs to run up the score in the relatively Republican areas where he’s expected to do well: Staten Island, Long Island and upstate New York. But to maximize his delegate haul, he needs convincing wins in every congressional district — including in some of the most Democratic places in the country. Every pocket of weakness could cost him delegates….All things considered, if he went over 50 percent statewide, he would probably win at least 75 delegates." [NYT]

It's hard to know exactly how many delegates he'll win- Nate Silver: "The more difficult question is how this translates to congressional districts; if Trump winds up with (for instance) 54 percent of the vote statewide, in how many districts will that translate to a majority? You should be wary of quick-and-dirty answers from polls that break out the results by region. For one thing, the sample sizes on those regional breakouts are usually quite small. But also, the precise way the regions are defined is important; they may not tell us very much about the deep-blue districts we’re interested in….Therefore, even if Trump gets 55 percent or 60 percent of the vote statewide, he’ll probably be under 50 percent in a handful of districts, preventing a clean sweep…. He should beat our original estimate of 71 delegates unless he finishes below 50 percent statewide. Given the recent polls, our models calculate there’s less than a 10 percent chance of his failing to hit that majority threshold." [538]

Polls all show substantial leads for Trump statewide - The business mogul has been at or above 50 percent in every New York primary poll out this month. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in second place in most of the polls, but trails Trump by over 30 points on average. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz isn’t faring too well in the state -- he gets just under one-fifth of the vote in HuffPost Pollster’s polling average. Unless the polls are catastrophically wrong, Trump is headed for a big victory next Tuesday.

POLLS SHOW CLINTON LEADING IN NEW YORK - New York's Democratic primary shows a similar pattern to national polls: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders might be closing the gap on Hillary Clinton, but likely not fast enough to win the state. According to HuffPost Pollster’s average, Clinton leads by just over 10 points -- down from nearly 20 points according to a Siena poll of registered voters at the beginning of March, although there was little polling at that point. Surveys since late March have shown the race mostly stable. Sanders might have made inroads in the state, but with the primary coming up on Tuesday he probably doesn’t have enough time to take the lead. He will still win a substantial chunk of delegates since Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, but Clinton is likely to win the majority of delegates if the polls are correct. [HuffPost]

The demographics of the state favor Clinton - Asma Khalid: "Historical and current U.S. Census data suggest that New York's demographics are unusual compared with other states that have already voted this primary season. No doubt, New Yorkers have their own state of mind, but, a few demographic trends help us understand the electorate...52 percent of active Democratic voters reside within New York City. New York is a diverse metro area; two-thirds of New Yorkers are black, Latino, Asian or multiracial. Hillary Clinton, so far, has shown an advantage with minority voters, winning African-Americans by huge margins across the country...It's worth pointing out that many urban voters are young....Sanders performs well with young voters of all races and ethnicities….But young voters as a whole usually have the lowest voter turnout of any age group, and so Clinton has been able to keep her losses at a minimum by relying more on older voters….The other advantage for Clinton is that New York is a closed primary. In other words, independents are not allowed to vote — and that's bad news for Sanders." [NPR]

SANDERS AND TRUMP SUPPORTERS UNITED ON NEED FOR DRASTIC CHANGE - Kathy Frankovic: “Sanders supporters are looking ahead to a political revolution. 59% of Americans overall believe that the country 'needs a political revolution,' and that belief is most apparent among the supporters of the two insurgent candidates – Sanders on the Democratic side and Donald Trump among Republicans. But that opinion is not just limited to those two candidates’ voters.  Even 40% of those Democratic voters who want Clinton to be the nominee agree the country needs a political revolution.” [YouGov]

AMERICANS LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING MINIMUM WAGE - HuffPollster: "Fifty-three percent of all Americans say that raising the minimum wage will help workers, while just a third see the idea as a negative. Proposals to raise the minimum hourly wage to $10.10, $12 and $15 are all popular, but there’s more backing for a smaller wage hike. Sixty-six percent of Americans support a $10.10 federal minimum wage; 59 percent support $12 and 48 percent support $15…. Partisan agreement also falls apart for the more ambitious proposals. While majorities of both Republicans and Democrats support an increase to $10.10, Republicans largely oppose a higher raise….Asked which proposal they most favor, a slim 30 percent plurality of Americans said they favored a $15 minimum wage, with 28 percent preferring a smaller rise to $10.10. Another 20 percent staked out a middle ground at $12, while 18 percent want to see the minimum wage unchanged or repealed altogether." [HuffPost]  

Huffington Post

GMO OPINIONS LINKED TO EDUCATION AND INCOME LEVEL - Joseph Erbentraut: "Americans still believe, contrary to the scientific consensus, that GMOs are unsafe to eat….The most striking divisions in perceptions of GMO safety had nothing to do with political party affiliation...Instead, education level and family income showed the widest gaps. Forty-nine percent of respondents with a college degree said they believe GMOs are generally safe, compared with 36 percent who had completed some college and just 22 percent who completed high school or less. When it came to family income, 51 percent of respondents making $100,000 or more per year said they believed GMO foods are safe to eat, compared with 42 percent of those earning $50,000 to $100,000, and 26 percent of those earning less than $50,000." [HuffPost]

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THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Alan Abramowitz argues high voter turnout in the general election is unlikely to change the outcome. [Crystal Ball]

-Philip Bump finds that there's no link between winning or losing states in the primary and the general election. [WashPost]

-Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are less popular among Americans than Mitt Romney was at the same time in 2012. [WashPost]

-Yoni Appelbaum argues that Trump supporters' civic disengagement could cost him the nomination. [Atlantic]  

-Sixty-three percent of millennial women are scared of Donald Trump. [Refinery29]

-Seven in 10 Republicans expect the GOP convention to turn violent. [YouGov]

-Two thirds of Americans want the Senate to hold hearings and vote on Obama's Supreme Court nominee. [AP]

-New Yorkers are divided on where “upstate” begins and whether it’s okay to eat pizza with a fork. [PPP]

-Neil Newhouse is named pollster of the year by the American Association of Political Consultants. [AAPC]

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